| Hand I was knocked out on in the 1K Borgata Open event |
[Jun. 16th, 2008|09:26 pm] |
Blinds are currently 400/800 with a 100 ante. Announcement has already been made that this is the last hand of this level. I am under the gun. Next hand I will be big blind for 1200 with a 200 ante.
I have TT.
I announce raise, and first put out the call for 800. I have a total of 10400.
4 people fold before I put out the raise. While I should take this into account, I really don't feel that it changes my decision.
I decide to jam.
The person who it is now up to starts yammering about the only reason I jammed was that I saw all the people who had now folded. He takes about two minutes and eventually decides to fold 99. He didn't show the hand, but claimed that's what he had and I believe that's what he had. After he was thinking and talking to himself for a minute, I figured that he had either a medium pair or was deciding on whether to call with a hand which would have been a coin-flip (seemed genuine debate, not hollywooding with a big hand). About the only hand I could see him debating and folding that had me crushed would have been JJ.
It gets down to the two blinds. The big blind, who had a lot of chips, would definitely have called with any two cards which would have been a flip (even QJ).
Unfortunately, the small blind, who was NOT calling with a coin flip (even AKs) calls, and I know I am in bad shape. He confirms it by turning over QQ.
I do not hit a miracle (someone earlier had doubled through him when it was all-in preflop with him having AA and the other person having KK), and IGHN.
The only thought in my mind (and NOT just based on the outcome) was whether or not making it 2500-3500 was a better play. I don't think so, but wouldn't mind some feedback.
To add a few thoughts:
If the person who debates pushes, I would have called.
I KNOW I'm a 4-1 dog if the person who was the small blind pushes and can decide if I want to take the odds to double up.
From Phil Gordon's pair principle, I'm going to run into a bigger pair 18% of the time UTG with TT. Even if you eliminate someone calling with JJ (several people at this table would have folded JJ), that makes it 13.5% of the time I will run into QQ, KK or AA. If you take into account that 4 people have already folded, I will run into QQ, KK, or AA 7.5% of the time. I don't mind a flip, so don't mind running into overcards.
Even under the best circumstance, if I make it 2500, and fold (pot would have been 14700 and I would have had to call another 7900) that would leave me with 7900, 1200 of which goes into the BB next hand.
Oh, and for those who might question how certain I could be that the small blind would not make the play with AK (although if I made it 2500 he likely would have called with AK), I am 99.9999999% certain that he would not have pushed with anything less than QQ. I don't like to say 100% for anything, but I have played with the person a decent amount the last few years and 99.9999999% seems right :) |
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| Comments: |
Finally getting to this...
Its a pretty clear-cut push. You have four choices that I see, and I think its the best net profile.
a)Fold. No way.
b)Limp. I think its just about viable to limp and then either shove/fold to a raise (based on the usual factors). I don't think its optimal though.
c)Modest raise. I think this is just playing with fire. The raise leaves you with approximately T7500. One of two things can happen to create a second hard decision - the flop can contain 1+ over cards and you have to either give up (which will absolutely cripple you once you pay blinds/antes for 1/3 of your stack) or shove all in out of position for a pot sized bet. Or you can be re-raised preflop and then either be all in anyway or fold and be screwed in two hands.
d)Shove. If people aren't catching onto the level-change, they'll be reduced to calling you with very few hands. If the worst hand that the SB will call you with is QQ, then I'm very happy shoving into him. You get the maximum fold equity plus the off-chance of getting lucky on a suckout. Bet-fold combinations have neither of these.
I think its a shove. Obviously not the result you'd like, but I just can't see how any of the other options really give you a fighting chance. | |
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